Three Decades of Land Use and Land Cover Change in Japan

 Three Decades of Land Use and Land Cover Change in Japan (1994–2024): A Systematic Literature Review of Trajectories, Drivers, and Sustainability Implications

Abstract:

Land use and land cover change (LULCC) constitutes a major challenge to sustainability worldwide. This also applies to Japan, where urbanization in coastal lowlands is contrasted with widespread agricultural abandonment in rural landscapes. In this systematic review we synthesized the main LULCC trajectories, their driving forces, and specific effects in Japan from 1994 to 2024. Following PRISMA guidelines, 158 peer-reviewed articles were analyzed using quantitative co-occurrence analyses, Chi-squared tests, and Sankey diagrams to map land-use flows. Two dominant and opposing trajectories were confirmed: urban expansion and agricultural abandonment. The most significant land transition flow involved the conversion of agricultural land to forests/natural vegetation, while the conversion of agricultural land to built-up areas came in second place. These transitions were primarily driven by economic and demographic factors, but reforestation trends were strongly influenced by policy and institutional factors (35.70%), reflecting national regreening initiatives. Ecological and biodiversity impacts of LULCC were the most often documented effects (>40% of records). While the published literature describes trends in land-use transformations, the mechanistic understanding of LULCC remains limited. There is an urgent need to move toward process-based predictive modeling that integrates socio-economic variables. Future policies should balance urban density management with the strategic use of rural abandonment for ecosystem services provision and climate mitigation.

Keywords: demographic change; land policies; urbanization; agricultural abandonment; Satoyama; ecosystem services